一种装甲车辆CAN总线混合调度算法

针对当前装甲车辆综合电子系统节点消息传输不公平、紧急消息传输不及时等缺点,结合某型车辆消息紧急度和截止期,按照分层处理原则对总线协议进行了改进,提出了"分级决策动态均衡"的混合调度算法,并通过试验验证了算法的可行性和有效性。     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

基于集对-层次分析法的合成部队作战能力分析

为科学评估合成部队战斗力水平,在准确量化作战行动的基础上,设计定义了39个作战能力最小数据集,抽象出快速反应、情报侦察、指挥控制等11种专题作战能力评价体系。以该标准采集的数据为样本, 运用集对-层次分析法实现了合成部队作战能力的综合评估。最后以火力打击能力评估模型为例,验证了该方法的有效性实用性。     

捷联导引头视线转率估计的交互式多模型样条滤波算法

针对捷联导引头测量信息的弹目惯性视线转率估计,提出了一种基于交互式多模型算法的样条滤波方法(IMM-SF)。基于体视线和惯性视线的映射关系解算惯性视线角,将其作为虚拟观测量进行滤波,设置多个过程噪声模型,每个模型分别采用样条滤波器进行滤波,IMM-SF滤波器的估值结果为各滤波器估值的加权综合。该方法不必对目标的未知机动建模,应用更加方便,并且可在交互式多模型算法的框架下自适应地调整滤波器的噪声。Monte-Carlo仿真结果表明该方法可有效估计视线转率,并可提高估值精度。     

基于动态数据驱动的多UAV实时任务规划

针对在实时动态条件下多UAV任务规划问题,提出了基于动态数据驱动的多UAV实时任务规划仿真平台,主要包括基于MultiUAV2的真实UAV群仿真平台和基于Multi-Agent的预测仿真平台两个部分。采用了A*算法对真实系统工作流进行探索,在此基础之上构建了多UAV合成工作流模型,然后针对动态数据注入运行仿真的问题,研究了传感器任务重置及传感器的预处理方法。最后,通过一个仿真实例验证了提出方法的可行性和有效性。     

网络分布式分级数据处理技术

针对现代战争中多平台多传感器协同作战的特点,提出了一种网络分布式分级数据处理技术。首先,通过网络分布式技术提升了整个作战系统的抗毁性,实现了指控作战的无缝交接。其次,通过分级融合技术解决了传统单级融合模式中由于数据回吐而造成的信息冗余问题,同时也降低了网络负载;最后,通过理论分析和仿真实验验证了分布式分级处理技术的可行性和有效性,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.